Climate Change - Impacts

If the magnitude of global warming is consistent with the mid- or upper-range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) simulations, serious and damaging societal and ecological impacts are likely to result. Higher latitudes are predicted to see greater temperature increases than lower latitudes, especially during winter and spring. The IPCC predicts rising sea levels, increased rainfall rates and heavy precipitation events (especially over the higher latitudes) and higher evaporation rates that would accelerate the drying of soils following rain events. With higher sea levels, coastal regions could face increased wind and flood damage, and some models predict an increase the intensity of tropical storms. 

Regional and state impacts are harder to predict than large regional or global impacts.  Regional models focused on the Great Plains states indicate these possible impacts in Kansas:

• Decreases in growing season precipitation similiar to the worst Dust Bowl years (1934 and 1936) with temperature increases that exceed Dust Bowl averages by about 3 degrees Centigrade.      
• Crop yields may fluctuate or drop due to higher temperatures and irrigation water supplies may be negatively impacted.     
• The ranges of some diseases may be extended such as Rift Valley fever which is a serious disease affecting cattle. Thus, climate change may create greater stresses on livestock production.     
• Increased frequency and duration of heat waves and disease vectors could increase human mortality rates.

Even if global average temperature increases in the year 2100 are in the lower-range of the IPCC scenarios, the models project ongoing increases in temperatures and sea levels well beyond the end of this century. Thus the eventual impacts may be delayed but not avoided. 

For more information on climate change impacts at the national and international levels, see:
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
National Research Council, Climate Change Science: An Analysis of Some Key Questions (2001)
Center for Health and the Global Environment, Climate Change Futures: Health, Ecological, and Economic Dimensions, Harvard Medical School, November 2005
William Schlesinger, Duke University, Testimony before Legislative Commission on Global Climate Change, 2/3/06